October CPI Comes in Hot at 0.4% — Bitcoin Drops Below $74,000 as Fed Rate-Hike Bets Surge

US inflation came in hotter than expected in October, and the reaction was instant: Bitcoin dropped below $74,000 within minutes of the report, gold fell sharply, and traders raised their bets on another Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. Consumer prices rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the month — above the 0.3% economists had forecast, though slower than September's 0.6% jump. It was the last inflation reading the Fed will see before its December meeting, which makes the upside surprise matter even more.

What the October CPI report showed

The headline number tells only part of the story. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices and is the measure the Federal Reserve watches most closely, rose 0.3% in October — also a tenth of a point above the 0.2% forecast. Core inflation has now risen 0.3% for three months in a row, in August, September and October, a pace that works out to roughly 3.7% a year, well above the Fed's 2% target.

Housing did most of the damage. The shelter index rose 0.3% in October and accounted for more than 30% of the entire monthly increase, according to the BLS. Food prices rose 0.5% in October, with food at home up 0.4% and food away from home up 0.5%, after food prices were flat in September. Energy prices rose 0.7%, a sharp slowdown from September's 5.2% surge, but still moving in the wrong direction for households.

Food costs have been a sore point for American households all year, and not only because of prices. Earlier this year, safety worries added to the pressure when the FDA raised an egg recall to its highest risk level — a reminder that the grocery aisle has been under strain from more than one direction. Read our earlier report: FDA Class I Egg Recall: Brands, Codes and States Affected

There was one small piece of relief in the report: real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from September to October, meaning paychecks at least kept pace with prices for the month — but did not gain ground.

Why there is no annual inflation rate this time

This month's CPI report comes with an unusual gap: the BLS published no 12-month inflation rate for October. The reason goes back to last year's government shutdown. The BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations, so it has no October 2025 index to compare against and cannot calculate a year-over-year change for most series.

That makes the monthly numbers more important than usual — and both of them beat forecasts. The next CPI report, covering November, is scheduled for December 10, and it should restore the annual rate, since the BLS did collect prices in November 2025 after the shutdown ended.

Bitcoin drops below $74,000 in minutes

Crypto markets reacted within seconds of the 8:30 a.m. release. Bitcoin had been trading between roughly $74,120 and $74,360 on Coinbase in the half hour before the data. In the five-minute window that began at 8:30 a.m. ET, it ranged from a high of $74,599 down to a low of $73,400, closing the window at $73,890. By 9:06 a.m. ET it was trading near $73,774, about 1.4% below its price 24 hours earlier.

The selling was violent in the leveraged market. About $200 million in crypto long positions were liquidated within five minutes of the CPI print, and nearly $360 million in positions were wiped out over 24 hours, hitting more than 80,000 traders, according to Coinglass data. Bitcoin also slid below its 50-week moving average, and it now sits roughly 41% below its October 2025 record of about $126,080.

The pressure had been building before Tuesday. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now seen net outflows in six of their last seven sessions, totalling $2.13 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $1.66 billion of that total, according to Farside Investors. Bitcoin was also among the most-searched topics in the United States on Tuesday morning as the sell-off accelerated.

With the holiday shopping season starting, rising prices make every deal matter more for household budgets — and retailers know it. Walmart has already set its Black Friday schedule, with early deals running November 12-15 and the main event November 23-29. See the full dates and what to expect: Walmart Black Friday Deals 2026

Gold, yields and the Fed: what happens next

Bitcoin was not the only market to flinch. Gold fell sharply, dropping about 1.6% to around $4,071 an ounce before the release and sliding further after it, pressured by hawkish remarks from Fed officials and expectations of higher interest rates. The 2-year US Treasury yield rose as much as 17 basis points to 4.71%, and the US dollar gained about 0.3% against a basket of major currencies.

The market's message is now blunt: traders see a December rate hike as close to certain. Futures markets put the probability of a hike at the Fed's December 9 meeting at about 98.8%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Hours before the CPI release, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in London that he is leaning toward a quarter-point hike in December and is open to a 50-basis-point move — a half-point increase in one step — if core inflation keeps running at 0.3% a month. A 0.3% core print is exactly what the BLS just delivered.

What it means for your wallet

For most Americans, the October report lands in two places they feel every day: the grocery store and the rent bill. Food prices rose 0.5% in a single month, and shelter — the biggest single component of the CPI — rose 0.3% and drove more than 30% of the increase. With real wages flat for the month, households are paying more without earning more.

If the Fed does raise rates in December, borrowing costs would rise further, from credit cards to car loans to mortgages. That is the trade-off the central bank is weighing: higher rates can cool inflation, but they make life more expensive for borrowers in the short term. The December 9 decision, and the November CPI report the day after, will show which way the Fed jumps.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the October 2026 CPI?

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on November 10, 2026. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%. Both figures were 0.1 percentage points above economists' forecasts.

Why is there no annual inflation rate for October 2026?

The BLS did not collect price survey data in October 2025 because of a lapse in government funding during last year's shutdown, so it cannot calculate a 12-month change for most CPI series this time. The annual rate should return with the November report on December 10.

Why did Bitcoin fall after the CPI report?

Hotter-than-expected inflation pushed traders to bet on a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, which tends to hurt risk assets. Bitcoin fell about 1.2% within minutes of the 8:30 a.m. ET release, touching $73,400 on Coinbase, and about $200 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated in five minutes.

Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in December?

Futures markets price a December hike as close to certain, at about 98.8% probability, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has said he leans toward a quarter-point hike and is open to a half-point move. The Fed decides on December 9.

When is the next CPI report?

The BLS is scheduled to publish the November 2026 CPI on Thursday, December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

References

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, October 2026
• Unchained — Bitcoin Drops Below $74,000 as Core Inflation Runs Above Forecasts
• CoinScreamer — Bitcoin Falls Below $74,000 After US Inflation Tops Forecasts
• Bitcoin.com News — Bitcoin Price Slips Below $74K as Options Traders Eye $72K and Liquidations Mount
• Blockchain Reporter — Why Is Bitcoin Down Today? BTC Slips Below $75K
• SHRM — Inflation Continued to Rise in October, Squeezing Employees
• Realtor.com — CPI Report: Inflation Remains Hot in October as Fed Eyes Next Rate Hike